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Kwara United vs Sporting Lagos — NPFL 2019

Kwara United
Kwara United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
11/1/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 6Kwara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kwara United64%
×Draw25%
Sporting Lagos10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kwara United
1.51
Sporting Lagos
0.43

Kwara United creates 251% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kwara United
1.39
Sporting Lagos
0.42

allows per match

Kwara United
0.45
Sporting Lagos
1.63

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par
Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Sporting Lagos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw
90%
Kwara United or Sporting Lagos
75%
Draw or Sporting Lagos
36%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+
35%
Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals
78%
Kwara United 2+ goals
44%
Kwara United 3+ goals
19%
Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
35%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
7%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)
86%
Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Sporting Lagos away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Sporting Lagos defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sporting Lagos attack 0.42 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kwara United scores more
64%
level
25%
Sporting Lagos scores more
10%

Kwara United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kwara United 2–1 Sporting Lagos

Kwara United beat Sporting Lagos 2-1 in NPFL on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Kwara Sports Complex in Ilorin.