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Sporting Lagos vs Heartland — NPFL 2019

Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Heartland
Heartland
11/19/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 9Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sporting Lagos61%
×Draw25%
Heartland14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Lagos
1.57
Heartland
0.60

Sporting Lagos creates 162% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 100 away

creates per match

Sporting Lagos
1.63
Heartland
0.53

allows per match

Sporting Lagos
0.68
Heartland
1.52

finishing

Sporting Lagos+0.00on par
Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Lagos ↓

Heartland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Lagos or draw
86%
Sporting Lagos or Heartland
75%
Draw or Heartland
39%

Winning margin

Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
33%
Heartland wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
79%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
46%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
21%
Heartland 1+ goals
45%
Heartland 2+ goals
12%
Heartland 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
81%
Heartland (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Lagos at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Lagos attack 1.63 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Heartland attack 0.53 + Sporting Lagos defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sporting Lagos scores more
61%
level
25%
Heartland scores more
14%

Sporting Lagos at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sporting Lagos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Sporting Lagos 1–1 Heartland

Sporting Lagos and Heartland drew 1-1 in NPFL on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Mobolaji Johnson Arena in Lagos.