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Heartland vs Sporting Lagos — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
4/7/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 29Enyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Heartland60%
×Draw26%
Sporting Lagos14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.50
Sporting Lagos
0.58

Heartland creates 159% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 19 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Sporting Lagos
0.42

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Sporting Lagos
1.63

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Sporting Lagos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
86%
Heartland or Sporting Lagos
74%
Draw or Sporting Lagos
40%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
32%
Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
78%
Heartland 2+ goals
44%
Heartland 3+ goals
19%
Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
44%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
12%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
81%
Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Sporting Lagos away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Sporting Lagos defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sporting Lagos attack 0.42 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Heartland scores more
60%
level
26%
Sporting Lagos scores more
14%

Heartland at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Heartland 3–1 Sporting Lagos

Heartland beat Sporting Lagos 3-1 in NPFL on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Enyimba International Stadium in Aba.