Sporting Lagos 1–0 Bendel Insurance: Result & Stats

Sporting Lagos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bendel Insurance

T. Micheal 56'

2/18/2024

NPFL · Round 20Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sporting Lagos55%

×Draw28%

Bendel Insurance18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting LagosExpected goals in this matchBendel Insurance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.65

Sporting Lagos

1.38

Bendel Insurance

0.65

Sporting Lagos creates 112% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 79 away

1.63

creates per match

0.61

0.68

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sporting Lagos

1.63

Bendel Insurance

0.61

allows per match

Sporting Lagos

0.68

Bendel Insurance

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Lagos ↓

Bendel Insurance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sporting Lagos or draw

82%

Sporting Lagos or Bendel Insurance

72%

Draw or Bendel Insurance

45%

Winning margin

Sporting Lagos wins by 2+

27%

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sporting Lagos 1+ goals

75%

Sporting Lagos 2+ goals

40%

Sporting Lagos 3+ goals

16%

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals

48%

Bendel Insurance 2+ goals

14%

Bendel Insurance 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)

76%

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Lagos at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Bendel Insurance away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Lagos attack 1.63 + Bendel Insurance defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bendel Insurance attack 0.61 + Sporting Lagos defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sporting Lagos scores more

55%

level

28%

Bendel Insurance scores more

18%

Sporting Lagos at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sporting Lagos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

T. Micheal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff