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Bendel Insurance vs Sporting Lagos — NPFL 2019

Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
D. Nwachukwu 60'
C. Meze 37'
J. Osaghae 32'
H. Ndidi 90+2'
1/20/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 19Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bendel Insurance62%
×Draw26%
Sporting Lagos11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bendel Insurance
1.47
Sporting Lagos
0.46

Bendel Insurance creates 220% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bendel Insurance
1.31
Sporting Lagos
0.42

allows per match

Bendel Insurance
0.51
Sporting Lagos
1.63

finishing

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par
Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bendel Insurance ↓

Sporting Lagos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bendel Insurance or draw
89%
Bendel Insurance or Sporting Lagos
74%
Draw or Sporting Lagos
38%

Winning margin

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+
33%
Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals
77%
Bendel Insurance 2+ goals
43%
Bendel Insurance 3+ goals
18%
Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
37%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
8%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)
85%
Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bendel Insurance at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.51 · 80 matches

Sporting Lagos away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bendel Insurance attack 1.31 + Sporting Lagos defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sporting Lagos attack 0.42 + Bendel Insurance defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bendel Insurance scores more
62%
level
26%
Sporting Lagos scores more
11%

Bendel Insurance at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bendel Insurance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
J. Osaghae
37'
C. Meze
60'
D. Nwachukwu
65'
S. Anyanwu
83'
E. Akobundu
90+2'
H. Ndidi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Bendel Insurance 3–1 Sporting Lagos

Bendel Insurance beat Sporting Lagos 3-1 in NPFL on January 20, 2024.

Goals: J. Osaghae (32'), C. Meze (37'), D. Nwachukwu (60'), H. Ndidi (90+2').

The match was played at Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium in Benin City.