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Sporting KC II vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
7/22/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 33Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sporting KC II41%
×Draw24%
Rio Grande Valley35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.59
Rio Grande Valley
1.44

Sporting KC II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 93 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.52
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

Sporting KC II
1.63
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
65%
Sporting KC II or Rio Grande Valley
76%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
59%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
21%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
80%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
47%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
21%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
76%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
42%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
54%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.52 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.59

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Sporting KC II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
41%
level
24%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
35%

Sporting KC II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sporting KC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting KC II vs Rio Grande Valley

Sporting KC II and Rio Grande Valley drew 0-0 in USL Championship on July 22, 2018.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas).