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Rio Grande Valley vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
5/20/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 17H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Rio Grande Valley52%
×Draw23%
Sporting KC II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Grande Valley
1.81
Sporting KC II
1.19

Rio Grande Valley creates 52% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 66 away

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.44
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.21
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw
75%
Rio Grande Valley or Sporting KC II
77%
Draw or Sporting KC II
48%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
29%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
84%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
54%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
27%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
70%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
33%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
67%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more
52%
level
23%
Sporting KC II scores more
25%

Rio Grande Valley at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rio Grande Valley vs Sporting KC II

Rio Grande Valley and Sporting KC II drew 0-0 in USL Championship on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas).