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Sporting KC II vs Portland Timbers II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
8/14/2022MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 21Mercy Victory Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sporting KC II47%
×Draw22%
Portland Timbers II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
2.02
Portland Timbers II
1.61

Sporting KC II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.60
Portland Timbers II
1.08

allows per match

Sporting KC II
2.15
Portland Timbers II
2.44

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Portland Timbers II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Portland Timbers II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
69%
Sporting KC II or Portland Timbers II
78%
Draw or Portland Timbers II
53%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
27%
Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
87%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
60%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
33%
Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
80%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
48%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
60%
Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.15 · 52 matches

Portland Timbers II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.60 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.02

Portland Timbers II attack 1.08 + Sporting KC II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
47%
level
22%
Portland Timbers II scores more
31%

Sporting KC II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sporting KC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Sporting KC II 2–0 Portland Timbers II

Sporting KC II beat Portland Timbers II 2-0 in MLS Next Pro on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Mercy Victory Field in Kansas City, Missouri.