Portland Timbers II 5–2 Sporting KC II

Portland Timbers II

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting KC II

7/26/2024

MLS Next Pro · Round 26Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Portland Timbers II46%

×Draw21%

Sporting KC II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland Timbers IIExpected goals in this matchSporting KC II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.72

Portland Timbers II

2.05

Sporting KC II

1.72

Portland Timbers II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 51 away

1.92

creates per match

1.59

1.85

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Portland Timbers II

1.92

Sporting KC II

1.59

allows per match

Portland Timbers II

1.85

Sporting KC II

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par

Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

Sporting KC II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw

67%

Portland Timbers II or Sporting KC II

79%

Draw or Sporting KC II

54%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+

26%

Sporting KC II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals

87%

Portland Timbers II 2+ goals

61%

Portland Timbers II 3+ goals

33%

Sporting KC II 1+ goals

82%

Sporting KC II 2+ goals

51%

Sporting KC II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)

58%

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.85 · 48 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.92 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sporting KC II attack 1.59 + Portland Timbers II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more

46%

level

21%

Sporting KC II scores more

33%

Portland Timbers II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portland Timbers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff