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Sporting KC II vs Philadelphia Union II — USL Championship 2018

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
4/6/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 8Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Sporting KC II47%
×Draw23%
Philadelphia Union II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.85
Philadelphia Union II
1.46

Sporting KC II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 43 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.52
Philadelphia Union II
1.30

allows per match

Sporting KC II
1.63
Philadelphia Union II
2.19

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
69%
Sporting KC II or Philadelphia Union II
77%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
53%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
26%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
84%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
55%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
28%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
77%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
43%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
60%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.52 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.85

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + Sporting KC II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
47%
level
23%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
31%

Sporting KC II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sporting KC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting KC II 3 – 4 Philadelphia Union II

Philadelphia Union II beat Sporting KC II 4-3 in USL Championship on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas).