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Philadelphia Union II vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
9/1/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 47Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Philadelphia Union II49%
×Draw22%
Sporting KC II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
1.91
Sporting KC II
1.44

Philadelphia Union II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 66 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.64
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.71
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
71%
Philadelphia Union II or Sporting KC II
78%
Draw or Sporting KC II
51%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
27%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
85%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
57%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
30%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
76%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
42%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
62%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.64 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.91

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
49%
level
22%
Sporting KC II scores more
29%

Philadelphia Union II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Philadelphia Union II vs Sporting KC II

Philadelphia Union II beat Sporting KC II 2-0 in USL Championship on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania).