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Sporting KC II vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
10/9/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 58Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sporting KC II42%
×Draw24%
Ottawa Fury33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.58
Ottawa Fury
1.38

Sporting KC II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.52
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

Sporting KC II
1.63
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
67%
Sporting KC II or Ottawa Fury
76%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
58%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
21%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
79%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
47%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
21%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
75%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
40%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
56%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.52 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + Sporting KC II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
42%
level
24%
Ottawa Fury scores more
33%

Sporting KC II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sporting KC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting KC II 1 – 2 Ottawa Fury

Ottawa Fury beat Sporting KC II 2-1 in USL Championship on October 9, 2019.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas).