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Ottawa Fury vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
7/20/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 35TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ottawa Fury53%
×Draw24%
Sporting KC II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ottawa Fury
1.72
Sporting KC II
1.03

Ottawa Fury creates 67% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ottawa Fury
1.26
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Ottawa Fury
0.88
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Ottawa Fury+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ottawa Fury ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ottawa Fury or draw
77%
Ottawa Fury or Sporting KC II
76%
Draw or Sporting KC II
47%

Winning margin

Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
29%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
82%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
51%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
25%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
64%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
28%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
70%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ottawa Fury at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ottawa Fury attack 1.26 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Ottawa Fury defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ottawa Fury scores more
53%
level
24%
Sporting KC II scores more
23%

Ottawa Fury at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ottawa Fury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ottawa Fury vs Sporting KC II

Ottawa Fury beat Sporting KC II 4-0 in USL Championship on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario).