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Sporting KC II vs Nashville — USL Championship 2018

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nashville
Nashville
8/4/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 39Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sporting KC II32%
×Draw26%
Nashville42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.23
Nashville
1.46

Nashville creates 19% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.52
Nashville
1.29

allows per match

Sporting KC II
1.63
Nashville
0.94

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Nashville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
58%
Sporting KC II or Nashville
74%
Draw or Nashville
68%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
13%
Nashville wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
71%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
35%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
13%
Nashville 1+ goals
77%
Nashville 2+ goals
43%
Nashville 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
43%
Nashville (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.52 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nashville attack 1.29 + Sporting KC II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
32%
level
26%
Nashville scores more
42%

Nashville at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Sporting KC II 0–2 Nashville

Nashville beat Sporting KC II 2-0 in USL Championship on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas).