Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nashville vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Nashville
Nashville
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
5/12/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 18First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nashville60%
×Draw22%
Sporting KC II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nashville
1.93
Sporting KC II
0.96

Nashville creates 101% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 66 away

creates per match

Nashville
1.67
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Nashville
0.75
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Nashville+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nashville or draw
82%
Nashville or Sporting KC II
78%
Draw or Sporting KC II
40%

Winning margin

Nashville wins by 2+
36%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nashville 1+ goals
85%
Nashville 2+ goals
57%
Nashville 3+ goals
30%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
62%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
25%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nashville (draw refunded)
77%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville attack 1.67 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Nashville defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nashville scores more
60%
level
22%
Sporting KC II scores more
18%

Nashville at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Nashville 5–1 Sporting KC II

Nashville beat Sporting KC II 5-1 in USL Championship on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee).