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Sporting KC II vs Las Vegas Lights — USL Championship 2018

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
6/24/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 26Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sporting KC II48%
×Draw23%
Las Vegas Lights29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.81
Las Vegas Lights
1.36

Sporting KC II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 133 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.52
Las Vegas Lights
1.09

allows per match

Sporting KC II
1.63
Las Vegas Lights
2.11

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Las Vegas Lights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
71%
Sporting KC II or Las Vegas Lights
77%
Draw or Las Vegas Lights
52%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
26%
Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
84%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
54%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
27%
Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
74%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
39%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
62%
Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Las Vegas Lights away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.52 + Las Vegas Lights defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.81

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.09 + Sporting KC II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
48%
level
23%
Las Vegas Lights scores more
29%

Sporting KC II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sporting KC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting KC II 3 – 2 Las Vegas Lights

Sporting KC II beat Las Vegas Lights 3-2 in USL Championship on June 24, 2018.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas).