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Las Vegas Lights vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
4/1/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 6Cashman Field (Las Vegas, Nevada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Las Vegas Lights48%
×Draw23%
Sporting KC II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Vegas Lights
1.80
Sporting KC II
1.34

Las Vegas Lights creates 34% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 66 away

creates per match

Las Vegas Lights
1.42
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Las Vegas Lights
1.51
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Vegas Lights ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Las Vegas Lights or draw
71%
Las Vegas Lights or Sporting KC II
77%
Draw or Sporting KC II
52%

Winning margin

Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
26%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
83%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
54%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
27%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
74%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
39%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
63%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Vegas Lights at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.51 · 131 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.42 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Las Vegas Lights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Las Vegas Lights scores more
48%
level
23%
Sporting KC II scores more
29%

Las Vegas Lights at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Las Vegas Lights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Vegas Lights vs Sporting KC II

Las Vegas Lights beat Sporting KC II 2-1 in USL Championship on April 1, 2018.

The match was played at Cashman Field (Las Vegas, Nevada).