Sporting Kansas City vs Nashville SC — Major League Soccer 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 17+ matches
Sporting Kansas City37%
Nashville SC39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 27 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sporting Kansas City ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sporting Kansas City at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches
Nashville SC away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sporting Kansas City attack 1.42 + Nashville SC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44
Nashville SC attack 1.14 + Sporting Kansas City defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Nashville SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Nashville SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FCSporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles FC
FC Dallas
New York City FC
Portland Timbers
DC United
Columbus Crew
Philadelphia Union
Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles Galaxy
Vancouver Whitecaps
New England Revolution
Houston Dynamo
Toronto FC
Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids
Orlando City SC
San Jose EarthquakesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Sporting Kansas City host Nashville SC on Sunday, 11 October 2020 at 23:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2018/2019 season.
Major League Soccer: Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Nashville SC
Sporting Kansas City beat Nashville SC 2-1 in Major League Soccer on October 11, 2020.
Goals: W. Zimmerman (14'), Gerso Fernandes (53'), E. Hurtado (79').
Sporting Kansas City controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 9.
The match was played at Children's Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.