Nashville SC 2–1 Sporting Kansas City

Nashville SC

FT

2 – 1

Sporting Kansas City

1/30/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Oxbridge Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nashville SC49%

×Draw26%

Sporting Kansas City26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nashville SCExpected goals in this matchSporting Kansas City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

Nashville SC

1.54

Sporting Kansas City

1.04

Nashville SC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.83

creates per match

1.25

0.83

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Nashville SC

1.83

Sporting Kansas City

1.25

allows per match

Nashville SC

0.83

Sporting Kansas City

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nashville SC+0.00on par

Sporting Kansas City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville SC ↓

Sporting Kansas City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nashville SC or draw

74%

Nashville SC or Sporting Kansas City

74%

Draw or Sporting Kansas City

51%

Winning margin

Nashville SC wins by 2+

25%

Sporting Kansas City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nashville SC 1+ goals

79%

Nashville SC 2+ goals

45%

Nashville SC 3+ goals

20%

Sporting Kansas City 1+ goals

65%

Sporting Kansas City 2+ goals

28%

Sporting Kansas City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nashville SC (draw refunded)

66%

Sporting Kansas City (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville SC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Sporting Kansas City away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville SC attack 1.83 + Sporting Kansas City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sporting Kansas City attack 1.25 + Nashville SC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nashville SC scores more

49%

level

26%

Sporting Kansas City scores more

26%

Nashville SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nashville SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City

Nashville SC beat Sporting Kansas City 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 30, 2024.

The match was played at Oxbridge Academy in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City