Sporting Huelva W 1–2 Real Sociedad W

Sporting Huelva W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Real Sociedad W

K. Konat 40'

S. Jensen 72'

Mirari Uria 21'

12/9/2023

Primera División Femenina · Round 11Ciudad Deportiva Decáno del Fútbol Español

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sporting Huelva W31%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Huelva WExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.52

Sporting Huelva W

1.23

Real Sociedad W

1.52

Real Sociedad W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 119 away

0.99

creates per match

1.65

1.40

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Sporting Huelva W

0.99

Real Sociedad W

1.65

allows per match

Sporting Huelva W

1.40

Real Sociedad W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Huelva W ↓

Real Sociedad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sporting Huelva W or draw

56%

Sporting Huelva W or Real Sociedad W

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad W

69%

Winning margin

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

13%

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

71%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

35%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

13%

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

78%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

45%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

41%

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 92 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.99 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting Huelva W scores more

31%

level

25%

Real Sociedad W scores more

44%

Real Sociedad W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. De Filippo

Sporting Huelva W · F

7.7

Match Events

21'

Mirari Uria

40'

K. Konat↳ Cienfu

57'

A. Margraf← S. Hagman

67'

Alejandra Bernabé← Mirari Uria

72'

S. Jensen↳ Andreia Jacinto

73'

María Cienfuegos Baragaño

73'

Alejandra Bernabé

74'

Lorena Navarro← Iris Arnaiz

80'

Isina← M. Kojima

86'

Y. Correa← A. Margraf

90+1'

Nora Sarriegi← S. Franssi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingReal

Overview

28%Possession72%

9Total Shots11

3Corners8

4Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots11

3On Target4

4Off Target4

2Blocked3

3Inside Box10

6Outside Box1

Passing

28%Possession72%

245Total Passes646

141Accurate Passes541

58%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

4Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides5