Sporting Huelva W 0–2 Real Sociedad W

Sporting Huelva W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Sociedad W

S. Jensen 90+4'

Amaiur Sarriegi 38'

10/22/2022

Primera División Femenina · Round 6Campo del CD Lamiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sporting Huelva W31%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Huelva WExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.52

Sporting Huelva W

1.23

Real Sociedad W

1.52

Real Sociedad W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 119 away

0.99

creates per match

1.65

1.40

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Sporting Huelva W

0.99

Real Sociedad W

1.65

allows per match

Sporting Huelva W

1.40

Real Sociedad W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Huelva W ↓

Real Sociedad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sporting Huelva W or draw

56%

Sporting Huelva W or Real Sociedad W

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad W

69%

Winning margin

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

13%

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

71%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

35%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

13%

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

78%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

45%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

41%

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 92 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.99 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting Huelva W scores more

31%

level

25%

Real Sociedad W scores more

44%

Real Sociedad W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

Amaiur Sarriegi↳ Nerea Eizagirre

60'

Bárbara López← V. Santana

73'

Cecilia Marcos← Mirari Uria

75'

Ana de Teresa← M. Lee

80'

Gemma Gili← Andreia Jacinto

84'

S. Jensen← Amaiur Sarriegi

90+1'

Cristina Gey← A. Edgren

90+4'

S. Jensen↳ Nerea Eizagirre

Sporting

Real

1

4

23

22

12

10

A

Eizagirre

19

▼

Jacinto

8

Arnaiz

16

García

18

▼

Uria

7

⚽

▼

1

3

16

15

19

20

▼

Edgren

10

Hagman

5

▼

Santana

11

Hmírová

7

▼

Lee

4

Carrasco

Manager: Antonio

60'▲Bárbara López←▼V. Santana

75'▲Ana de Teresa←▼M. Lee

90+1'▲Cristina Gey←▼A. Edgren

Sporting Huelva W substitutes

12López8Teresa21Gey23Balcerzak14LaiaBallesté9Ruiz13Meršnik

Manager: Natalia Arroyo

73'▲Cecilia Marcos←▼Mirari Uria

80'▲Gemma Gili←▼Andreia Jacinto

84'▲S. Jensen←▼Amaiur Sarriegi

Real Sociedad W substitutes

11Marcos21Gili20Jensen13Lete3Tejada9Franssi6Etxezarreta

Match Recap: Sporting Huelva W vs Real Sociedad W

Real Sociedad W beat Sporting Huelva W 2-0 in Primera División Femenina on October 22, 2022.

Goals: Amaiur Sarriegi (38'), S. Jensen (90+4').

The match was played at Campo del CD Lamiya in Huelva.

Sporting Huelva W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sporting Huelva W vs Real Sociedad W