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Sporting Huelva W vs Malaga W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sporting Huelva W
Sporting Huelva W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malaga W
Malaga W
12/9/2018Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 13Campo Federativo de la Orden (Huelva)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sporting Huelva W54%
×Draw25%
Malaga W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Huelva W
1.63
Malaga W
0.90

Sporting Huelva W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sporting Huelva W
0.99
Malaga W
0.40

allows per match

Sporting Huelva W
1.40
Malaga W
2.27

finishing

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par
Malaga W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Huelva W ↓

Malaga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sporting Huelva W or draw
79%
Sporting Huelva W or Malaga W
75%
Draw or Malaga W
46%

Winning margin

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+
29%
Malaga W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals
80%
Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals
48%
Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals
22%
Malaga W 1+ goals
59%
Malaga W 2+ goals
23%
Malaga W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)
72%
Malaga W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 92 matches

Malaga W away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.99 + Malaga W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.63

Malaga W attack 0.40 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sporting Huelva W scores more
54%
level
25%
Malaga W scores more
21%

Sporting Huelva W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sporting Huelva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Huelva W vs Malaga W

Sporting Huelva W beat Malaga W 2-0 in Primera División Femenina on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Campo Federativo de la Orden (Huelva).