Malaga W 1–1 Sporting Huelva W: Result & Stats

Malaga W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Huelva W

4/21/2019

Primera División Femenina · Round 28Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol (Málaga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malaga W41%

×Draw24%

Sporting Huelva W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malaga WExpected goals in this matchSporting Huelva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.47

Malaga W

1.62

Sporting Huelva W

1.47

Malaga W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 89 away

1.33

creates per match

0.73

2.20

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Malaga W

1.33

Sporting Huelva W

0.73

allows per match

Malaga W

2.20

Sporting Huelva W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga W+0.00on par

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga W ↓

Sporting Huelva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Malaga W or draw

65%

Malaga W or Sporting Huelva W

76%

Draw or Sporting Huelva W

59%

Winning margin

Malaga W wins by 2+

21%

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Malaga W 1+ goals

80%

Malaga W 2+ goals

48%

Malaga W 3+ goals

22%

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

77%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

43%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Malaga W (draw refunded)

54%

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Sporting Huelva W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga W attack 1.33 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.62

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.73 + Malaga W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malaga W scores more

41%

level

24%

Sporting Huelva W scores more

35%

Malaga W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malaga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff