Sporting Huelva W vs Madrid CFF W — Primera División Femenina 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 90+ matches
Sporting Huelva W41%
Madrid CFF W35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sporting Huelva W creates 10% more chances
Season form · 90 home / 118 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sporting Huelva W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches
Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.14 · 118 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sporting Huelva W attack 0.97 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.56
Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Sporting Huelva W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Sporting Huelva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Sporting Huelva W substitutes
Head to Head
Atletico Madrid W
Barcelona W
Levante W
Granad. Tenerife W
Athletic Club W
Real Betis W
Real Sociedad W
Espanyol W
Valencia W
Edf Logrono W
Sevilla W
Rayo Vallecano WMadrid CFF WSporting Huelva W
Malaga W
Fundacion Albacete WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Sporting Huelva W host Madrid CFF W on Sunday, 15 October 2023 at 10:00. The match is part of the Primera División Femenina 2018/2019 season.
Primera División Femenina: Sporting Huelva W 1–3 Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W beat Sporting Huelva W 3-1 in Primera División Femenina on October 15, 2023.
Goals: J. De Filippo (8'), Luany (39'), K. Araya (82'), Mônica (90').
Madrid CFF W controlled possession (71%) and registered 34 shots to 7.
The match was played at Campo Federativo de la Orden in Huelva.