Madrid CFF W 2–3 Sporting Huelva W: Result & Stats

Madrid CFF W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Huelva W

Gabi Nunes 75'

F. Bonsegundo 55'

P. Balcerzak 90+2'

P. Hmírová 47'

Ana de Teresa 29'

11/26/2022

Primera División Femenina · Round 10Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Madrid CFF W50%

×Draw24%

Sporting Huelva W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Madrid CFF WExpected goals in this matchSporting Huelva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.16

Madrid CFF W

1.71

Sporting Huelva W

1.16

Madrid CFF W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 89 away

1.52

creates per match

0.73

1.59

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Madrid CFF W

1.52

Sporting Huelva W

0.73

allows per match

Madrid CFF W

1.59

Sporting Huelva W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid CFF W ↓

Sporting Huelva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Madrid CFF W or draw

74%

Madrid CFF W or Sporting Huelva W

76%

Draw or Sporting Huelva W

50%

Winning margin

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+

27%

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals

82%

Madrid CFF W 2+ goals

51%

Madrid CFF W 3+ goals

24%

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

69%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

32%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)

66%

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid CFF W at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 118 matches

Sporting Huelva W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid CFF W attack 1.52 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.73 + Madrid CFF W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Madrid CFF W scores more

50%

level

24%

Sporting Huelva W scores more

26%

Madrid CFF W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Madrid CFF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Ana de Teresa↳ A. Edgren

47'

P. Hmírová↳ A. Edgren

55'

F. Bonsegundo↳ R. Kundananji

61'

Estela Fernández← Marina Rivas

61'

G. Chanda← Itziar Pinillos

71'

Bárbara López← Ana de Teresa

75'

Gabi Nunes

90+2'

P. Balcerzak↳ Bárbara López

Madrid

Sporting

13

16

15

14

19

23

⚽

Balcerzak

20

A

Edgren

11

⚽

Hmírová

9

Ruiz

8

⚽

▼

4

1

5

6

20

4

19

11

⚽

Bonsegund

16

▼

Pinillos

27

▼

Rivas

9

⚽

Nunes

3

A

Kundananj

Manager: María Pry

61'▲Estela Fernández←▼Marina Rivas

61'▲G. Chanda←▼Itziar Pinillos

Madrid CFF W substitutes

21Fernández22Chanda26Villafañe18Pardo13Expósito15Esteve8Araya7Domínguez

Manager: Antonio

71'▲Bárbara López←▼Ana de Teresa

Sporting Huelva W substitutes

12López21Gey24Cano7Guerra1Ashurst17Blasco