Sporting Huelva W 2–1 Granada: Result & Stats

Sporting Huelva W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Granada

R. Carrasco 68'

Miku Kojima 13'

E. Imade 83'

5/25/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 28Ciudad Deportiva Decáno del Fútbol Español

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sporting Huelva W37%

×Draw26%

Granada37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Huelva WExpected goals in this matchGranada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.32

Sporting Huelva W

1.34

Granada

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 45 away

0.97

creates per match

1.24

1.41

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sporting Huelva W

0.97

Granada

1.24

allows per match

Sporting Huelva W

1.41

Granada

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Granada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Huelva W ↓

Granada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Huelva W or draw

63%

Sporting Huelva W or Granada

74%

Draw or Granada

63%

Winning margin

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

17%

Granada wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

74%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

39%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

15%

Granada 1+ goals

73%

Granada 2+ goals

38%

Granada 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

51%

Granada (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches

Granada away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.97 + Granada defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.34

Granada attack 1.24 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sporting Huelva W scores more

37%

level

26%

Granada scores more

37%

Sporting Huelva W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sporting Huelva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Z. Meršnik

Sporting Huelva W · G

8.5

Match Events

13'

Miku Kojima↳ Sandra Castelló

43'

Bárbara López Gorrado

43'

Sandra Estévez Ogalla

58'

E. Imade← Carlota Suárez

58'

Alba Pérez← Isabel Álvarez

67'

R. Carrasco← S. Hagman

68'

R. Carrasco

70'

Ariadna Mingueza García

72'

Ornella Vignola← Ariadna Mingueza

77'

P. Hmírová← Bárbara López

78'

Cienfu← Miku Kojima

78'

Andrea Gómez← Marta Carrasco

81'

Y. Correa← LaiaBallesté

81'

J. De Filippo← J. Bokiri

83'

E. Imade↳ Ornella Vignola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingGranada

Overview

27%Possession73%

9Total Shots25

3Corners6

12Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots25

4On Target9

3Off Target9

2Blocked7

3Inside Box17

6Outside Box8

Passing

27%Possession73%

204Total Passes544

122Accurate Passes459

60%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2