Granada 0–1 Sporting Huelva W: Result & Stats

Granada

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Huelva W

LaiaBallesté 31' (pen)

1/21/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 14Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Granada48%

×Draw25%

Sporting Huelva W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GranadaExpected goals in this matchSporting Huelva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.10

Granada

1.57

Sporting Huelva W

1.10

Granada creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 88 away

1.22

creates per match

0.70

1.51

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Granada

1.22

Sporting Huelva W

0.70

allows per match

Granada

1.51

Sporting Huelva W

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada+0.00on par

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada ↓

Sporting Huelva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Granada or draw

73%

Granada or Sporting Huelva W

75%

Draw or Sporting Huelva W

52%

Winning margin

Granada wins by 2+

25%

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Granada 1+ goals

79%

Granada 2+ goals

46%

Granada 3+ goals

21%

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

67%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

30%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Granada (draw refunded)

64%

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Sporting Huelva W away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.93 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada attack 1.22 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.70 + Granada defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Granada scores more

48%

level

25%

Sporting Huelva W scores more

27%

Granada at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Granada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Cristina Postigo

Granada · D

8.2

Match Events

21'

María Ruiz

30'

Esther Martín-Pozuelo

31'

LaiaBallestéPenalty

60'

Patrícia Hmírová

66'

Andrea Gómez← Isabel Álvarez

67'

J. Bokiri← Miku Kojima

76'

E. Imade← Ornella Vignola

76'

Alba Pérez← Laura Pérez

77'

J. De Filippo← María Ruiz

88'

Isina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaSporting

Overview

71%Possession29%

29Total Shots6

8Corners2

10Fouls5

Shots

29Total Shots6

8On Target3

12Off Target2

9Blocked1

18Inside Box2

11Outside Box4

Passing

71%Possession29%

525Total Passes237

412Accurate Passes119

78%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls5

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0