Sporting Huelva W 0–1 Deportivo de La Coruña W

Sporting Huelva W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo de La Coruña W

Alba Merino 57'

10/19/2019

Primera División Femenina · Round 6Estadio Nuevo Colombino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sporting Huelva W46%

×Draw24%

Deportivo de La Coruña W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Huelva WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo de La Coruña W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.31

Sporting Huelva W

1.67

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.31

Sporting Huelva W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 59 away

0.99

creates per match

1.22

1.40

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Sporting Huelva W

0.99

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.22

allows per match

Sporting Huelva W

1.40

Deportivo de La Coruña W

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Huelva W ↓

Deportivo de La Coruña W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sporting Huelva W or draw

70%

Sporting Huelva W or Deportivo de La Coruña W

76%

Draw or Deportivo de La Coruña W

54%

Winning margin

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

81%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

50%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

23%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

60%

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 92 matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.99 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.67

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.22 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sporting Huelva W scores more

46%

level

24%

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more

30%

Sporting Huelva W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sporting Huelva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

P. E. Efih

45'

G. Garcia

46'

Marta Peiró← Fatoumata Kanteh

46'

P. Adubea← Y. Tanaka

48'

N. Villegas

57'

Alba Merino↳ Nuria Rábano

63'

N. Rabano

65'

Sara Navarro← P. Efih

75'

L. Moreno← Alba Merino

79'

M. Romero← Ainize Barea

86'

M. Yamamoto← Athenea del Castillo

90'

Laura Vázquez← Teresa Abelleira

Sporting

Deportivo

1

20

14

22

3

▼

Abelleira

8

⚽

▼

Merino

5

Arnaiz

19

García

11

A

Rábano

18

▼

Barea

9

▼

1

2

5

16

17

18

▼

Tanaka

20

▼

22

7

9

8

▼

Kanteh

Manager: Antonio

46'▲Marta Peiró←▼Fatoumata Kanteh

46'▲P. Adubea←▼Y. Tanaka

65'▲Sara Navarro←▼P. Efih

Sporting Huelva W substitutes

14Peiró12Adubea11Navarro19Steindl13Babb6Olanrewaju3Pavel

Manager: Manuel Sánchez

75'▲L. Moreno←▼Alba Merino

79'▲M. Romero←▼Ainize Barea

86'▲M. Yamamoto←▼Athenea del Castillo

90'▲Laura Vázquez←▼Teresa Abelleira

Deportivo de La Coruña W substitutes

10Moreno6Romero17Yamamoto16Vázquez13Rodríguez26López4Mérida

Match Recap: Sporting Huelva W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W

Deportivo de La Coruña W beat Sporting Huelva W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on October 19, 2019.

Goals: Alba Merino (57').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Colombino in Huelva.

Sporting Huelva W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sporting Huelva W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W