Deportivo de La Coruña W 1–0 Sporting Huelva W

Deportivo de La Coruña W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Huelva W

Alba Merino 51'

3/3/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 17Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportivo de La Coruña W49%

×Draw25%

Sporting Huelva W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo de La Coruña WExpected goals in this matchSporting Huelva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.10

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.61

Sporting Huelva W

1.10

Deportivo de La Coruña W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 89 away

1.32

creates per match

0.73

1.48

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.32

Sporting Huelva W

0.73

allows per match

Deportivo de La Coruña W

1.48

Sporting Huelva W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo de La Coruña W+0.00on par

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo de La Coruña W ↓

Sporting Huelva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo de La Coruña W or draw

74%

Deportivo de La Coruña W or Sporting Huelva W

75%

Draw or Sporting Huelva W

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo de La Coruña W wins by 2+

26%

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo de La Coruña W 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 2+ goals

48%

Deportivo de La Coruña W 3+ goals

22%

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

67%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

30%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo de La Coruña W (draw refunded)

65%

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo de La Coruña W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 56 matches

Sporting Huelva W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo de La Coruña W attack 1.32 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.73 + Deportivo de La Coruña W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo de La Coruña W scores more

49%

level

25%

Sporting Huelva W scores more

26%

Deportivo de La Coruña W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo de La Coruña W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

S. Castello

25'

P. Garcia

46'

Paula Romero← Paula García

51'

Alba Merino↳ Peke Barea

53'

C. Gey

56'

Fatoumata Kanteh← Cristina Gey

66'

Cinta Rodriguez

66'

M. Waldman← Sandra Castelló

83'

Jenni Morilla← Dany Helena

85'

M. Romero← Eva Dios

88'

María Figueroa← Peke Barea

Deportivo

Sporting

1

Ashurst

5

Mar

16

▼

Castelló

15

Ojeda

14

▼

18

7

10

11

▼

Helena

9

Ramírez

21

▼

1

4

22

20

8

⚽

Merino

5

Arnaiz

26

López

27

▼

Dios

11

García

18

A

▼

Barea

7

Castillo

Manager: Manuel Sánchez

85'▲M. Romero←▼Eva Dios

88'▲María Figueroa←▼Peke Barea

Deportivo de La Coruña W substitutes

6Romero29Figueroa23Álvarez14Torres15Bedoya30Tati24Sánchez13Bermúdez10Moreno

Manager: Antonio

46'▲Paula Romero←▼Paula García

56'▲Fatoumata Kanteh←▼Cristina Gey

66'▲M. Waldman←▼Sandra Castelló

83'▲Jenni Morilla←▼Dany Helena

Sporting Huelva W substitutes

19Romero8Kanteh6Waldman12Morilla13Buhigas20García