Sporting Hasselt 1–1 Cercle Brugge II

Sporting Hasselt

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cercle Brugge II

A. Dauwe 83'

D. Callens 65'

9/7/2024

League #487 · VV - 2Stedelijk Sportstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sporting Hasselt46%

×Draw26%

Cercle Brugge II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting HasseltExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.10

Sporting Hasselt

1.50

Cercle Brugge II

1.10

Sporting Hasselt creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.80

creates per match

1.40

0.80

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sporting Hasselt

1.80

Cercle Brugge II

1.40

allows per match

Sporting Hasselt

0.80

Cercle Brugge II

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Hasselt+0.00on par

Cercle Brugge II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Hasselt ↓

Cercle Brugge II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sporting Hasselt or draw

72%

Sporting Hasselt or Cercle Brugge II

74%

Draw or Cercle Brugge II

54%

Winning margin

Sporting Hasselt wins by 2+

23%

Cercle Brugge II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sporting Hasselt 1+ goals

78%

Sporting Hasselt 2+ goals

44%

Sporting Hasselt 3+ goals

19%

Cercle Brugge II 1+ goals

67%

Cercle Brugge II 2+ goals

30%

Cercle Brugge II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sporting Hasselt (draw refunded)

63%

Cercle Brugge II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Hasselt at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Cercle Brugge II away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Hasselt attack 1.80 + Cercle Brugge II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cercle Brugge II attack 1.40 + Sporting Hasselt defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sporting Hasselt scores more

46%

level

26%

Cercle Brugge II scores more

28%

Sporting Hasselt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sporting Hasselt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

A. Leliaert← S. Vanderhaegen

65'

D. Callens

70'

A. Dauwe← T. Cauwenberg

73'

A. Faal← R. El Bahri

73'

J. Obambi← N. De Ridder

82'

K. Maho← L. Vankerkhoven

83'

A. Dauwe

90'

L. Campe← D. Callens

90'

N. Gijdé← O. Vanackere

Sporting

Cercle

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Frans

70'▲A. Dauwe←▼T. Cauwenberg

82'▲K. Maho←▼L. Vankerkhoven

Sporting Hasselt substitutes

DauweMaho

Manager: D. Waeytens

65'▲A. Leliaert←▼S. Vanderhaegen

73'▲A. Faal←▼R. El Bahri

73'▲J. Obambi←▼N. De Ridder

90'▲L. Campe←▼D. Callens

90'▲N. Gijdé←▼O. Vanackere

Cercle Brugge II substitutes

LeliaertFaalObambiCampeGijdé

League #487: Sporting Hasselt 1–1 Cercle Brugge II

Sporting Hasselt and Cercle Brugge II drew 1-1 in League #487 on September 7, 2024.

Goals: D. Callens (65'), A. Dauwe (83').

The match was played at Stedelijk Sportstadion in Hasselt.

Sporting Hasselt vs Cercle Brugge II — League #487 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #487: Sporting Hasselt 1–1 Cercle Brugge II