Cercle Brugge II 2–1 Sporting Hasselt

Cercle Brugge II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sporting Hasselt

N. De Ridder 38'

N. Gijdé 35' (pen)

L. Milts 76'

2/23/2025

League #487 · VV - 23Complex KSV Oostkamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cercle Brugge II13%

×Draw18%

Sporting Hasselt68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cercle Brugge IIExpected goals in this matchSporting Hasselt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

2.31

Cercle Brugge II

0.91

Sporting Hasselt

2.31

Sporting Hasselt creates 154% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

0.75

creates per match

2.12

2.50

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Cercle Brugge II

0.75

Sporting Hasselt

2.12

allows per match

Cercle Brugge II

2.50

Sporting Hasselt

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cercle Brugge II+0.00on par

Sporting Hasselt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge II ↓

Sporting Hasselt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–211%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge II or draw

32%

Cercle Brugge II or Sporting Hasselt

82%

Draw or Sporting Hasselt

87%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge II wins by 2+

4%

Sporting Hasselt wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge II 1+ goals

60%

Cercle Brugge II 2+ goals

23%

Cercle Brugge II 3+ goals

6%

Sporting Hasselt 1+ goals

90%

Sporting Hasselt 2+ goals

67%

Sporting Hasselt 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge II (draw refunded)

16%

Sporting Hasselt (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge II at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Sporting Hasselt away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge II attack 0.75 + Sporting Hasselt defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Sporting Hasselt attack 2.12 + Cercle Brugge II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Cercle Brugge II scores more

13%

level

18%

Sporting Hasselt scores more

68%

Sporting Hasselt at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sporting Hasselt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

N. GijdéPenalty

38'

N. De Ridder

61'

S. Behaeghe← E. Kakou

61'

G. Degryse← B. Mpanzu

65'

L. Masscho← S. Rau

75'

R. El Bahri← N. De Ridder

75'

J. Obambi← D. Callens

76'

L. Milts

85'

J. Mbaku-Mbabit← N. Verburgh

90'

A. Leliaert← N. Gijdé

Cercle

Sporting

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ridder

Coens

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Waeytens

61'▲S. Behaeghe←▼E. Kakou

61'▲G. Degryse←▼B. Mpanzu

75'▲R. El Bahri←▼N. De Ridder

75'▲J. Obambi←▼D. Callens

90'▲A. Leliaert←▼N. Gijdé

Cercle Brugge II substitutes

BehaegheDegryseBahriObambiLeliaert

Manager: F. Frans

65'▲L. Masscho←▼S. Rau

85'▲J. Mbaku-Mbabit←▼N. Verburgh

Sporting Hasselt substitutes

MasschoMbaku-Mbabit

Match Recap: Cercle Brugge II vs Sporting Hasselt

Cercle Brugge II beat Sporting Hasselt 2-1 in League #487 on February 23, 2025.

Goals: N. Gijdé (35' pen), N. De Ridder (38'), L. Milts (76').

The match was played at Complex KSV Oostkamp in Oostkamp.

Cercle Brugge II vs Sporting Hasselt — League #487 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cercle Brugge II vs Sporting Hasselt