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Sporting Gijon vs Racing Ferrol — Segunda División 2018

Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
12/15/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 19Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sporting Gijon52%
×Draw27%
Racing Ferrol21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijon
1.43
Racing Ferrol
0.80

Sporting Gijon creates 79% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijon
1.31
Racing Ferrol
0.67

allows per match

Sporting Gijon
0.93
Racing Ferrol
1.55

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw
79%
Sporting Gijon or Racing Ferrol
73%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
48%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
26%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
76%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
42%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
17%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
55%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
19%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
71%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.93 · 169 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.31 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Racing Ferrol attack 0.67 + Sporting Gijon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more
52%
level
27%
Racing Ferrol scores more
21%

Sporting Gijon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 1–3 Racing Ferrol

Racing Ferrol beat Sporting Gijon 3-1 in Segunda División on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Molinón in Gijón.