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Racing Ferrol vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
5/31/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 42Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Racing Ferrol36%
×Draw30%
Sporting Gijon34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.08
Sporting Gijon
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 169 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.02
Sporting Gijon
0.90

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
1.21
Sporting Gijon
1.14

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Sporting Gijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
66%
Racing Ferrol or Sporting Gijon
70%
Draw or Sporting Gijon
64%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
14%
Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
66%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
29%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
10%
Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
65%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
28%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
51%
Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.02 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
36%
level
30%
Sporting Gijon scores more
34%

Racing Ferrol at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Racing Ferrol 0–2 Sporting Gijon

Sporting Gijon beat Racing Ferrol 2-0 in Segunda División on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.