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Sporting Gijon vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
Preview
16:00
Mallorca
Mallorca
3/21/2027Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 31
Big match
39%
Sporting Gijon
model favours
39%30%30%

Mallorca win just 11% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sporting Gijon39%
×Draw30%
Mallorca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijon
1.11
Mallorca
0.94

Sporting Gijon creates 18% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijon
1.32
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Sporting Gijon
0.94
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw
70%
Sporting Gijon or Mallorca
70%
Draw or Mallorca
61%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
16%
Mallorca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
67%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
30%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
10%
Mallorca 1+ goals
61%
Mallorca 2+ goals
24%
Mallorca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
56%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 170 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.32 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Sporting Gijon defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more
39%
level
30%
Mallorca scores more
30%

Sporting Gijon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gijon
WWWWL
Mallorca
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting Gijon vs Mallorca — Match Preview

Sporting Gijon face Mallorca on March 21, 2027 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.