Mallorca 2–1 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Mallorca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting Gijon

Álex López 90+5'

A. Budimir 19'

U. Đurđević 32'

5/5/2019

Segunda División · Round 37Iberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mallorca51%

×Draw28%

Sporting Gijon21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.77

Mallorca

1.35

Sporting Gijon

0.77

Mallorca creates 75% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 170 away

1.57

creates per match

0.89

0.65

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Mallorca

1.57

Sporting Gijon

0.89

allows per match

Mallorca

0.65

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

79%

Mallorca or Sporting Gijon

72%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

49%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

24%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

74%

Mallorca 2+ goals

39%

Mallorca 3+ goals

15%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

54%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

18%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

70%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sporting Gijon attack 0.89 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mallorca scores more

51%

level

28%

Sporting Gijon scores more

21%

Mallorca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Budimir

Mallorca · F

7.8

Match Events

19'

A. Budimir↳ Ariday Cabrera

32'

U. Đurđević↳ I. Cofie

47'

Carlos Carmona

48'

Salva Sevilla

57'

Raillo

67'

Dani Martín← Diego Mariño

68'

Abdón Prats← A. Budimir

68'

R. Lod← Carlos Carmona

77'

L. Suárez← Ariday Cabrera

84'

Dani Rodriguez

84'

Cristian Salvador← Nacho Méndez

85'

Álex López← Marc Pedraza

90'

Alex López

90'

Uroš Đurđević

90+5'

Álex López↳ Dani Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaSporting

Overview

64%Possession36%

20Total Shots6

15Corners5

16Fouls20

Shots

20Total Shots6

8On Target2

6Off Target1

6Blocked3

11Inside Box3

9Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

365Total Passes198

292Accurate Passes126

80%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls20

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2