Mallorca 0–0 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Mallorca

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gijon

11/22/2020

Segunda División · Round 13Iberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mallorca51%

×Draw28%

Sporting Gijon21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.77

Mallorca

1.35

Sporting Gijon

0.77

Mallorca creates 75% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 170 away

1.57

creates per match

0.89

0.65

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Mallorca

1.57

Sporting Gijon

0.89

allows per match

Mallorca

0.65

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

79%

Mallorca or Sporting Gijon

72%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

49%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

24%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

74%

Mallorca 2+ goals

39%

Mallorca 3+ goals

15%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

54%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

18%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

70%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sporting Gijon attack 0.89 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mallorca scores more

51%

level

28%

Sporting Gijon scores more

21%

Mallorca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Raíllo

Mallorca · D

7.9

Match Events

53'

Salva Sevilla

70'

Murilo← Jordi Mboula

70'

Febas← Salva Sevilla

89'

Gaspar Campos← Manu García

90+3'

Álex Alegría← A. Trajkovski

90'

A. Trajkovski← A. Ndiaye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaSporting

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots13

5Corners2

17Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots13

3On Target1

6Off Target7

1Blocked5

3Inside Box5

7Outside Box8

Passing

54%Possession46%

483Total Passes417

404Accurate Passes333

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0