Sporting Gijon 0–0 Las Palmas: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Las Palmas

11/2/2025

Segunda División · Round 12El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Sporting Gijon44%

×Draw29%

Las Palmas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.94

Sporting Gijon

1.27

Las Palmas

0.94

Sporting Gijon creates 35% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 128 away

1.31

creates per match

0.94

0.93

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.31

Las Palmas

0.94

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

0.93

Las Palmas

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Las Palmas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

73%

Sporting Gijon or Las Palmas

71%

Draw or Las Palmas

56%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

20%

Las Palmas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

72%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

36%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

14%

Las Palmas 1+ goals

61%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

24%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

62%

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.93 · 169 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.31 + Las Palmas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Las Palmas attack 0.94 + Sporting Gijon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

44%

level

29%

Las Palmas scores more

27%

Sporting Gijon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Sergio Barcia

Las Palmas · D

8.0

Match Events

41'

Diego Sánchez

54'

M. Rodriguez← K. Vazquez

62'

A. Garcia← Pejino

63'

Justin Smith

67'

Miloš LukovićRed card cancelled

68'

Miloš Luković

74'

M. Marmol← I. Gil

79'

Mika Mármol

83'

J. Caicedo← A. Coundoul

86'

K. Rodriguez← E. Loiodice

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingLas

Overview

32%Possession68%

5Total Shots8

0.25Expected Goals (xG)0.92

2Corners3

21Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots8

1On Target2

2Off Target4

2Blocked2

3Inside Box3

2Outside Box5

Passing

32%Possession68%

257Total Passes566

190Accurate Passes504

74%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3