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Sporting Gijon vs Las Palmas — Segunda División 2018

Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Las Palmas
Las Palmas
C. Izquierdoz 26' (OG)
12/3/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 18Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Sporting Gijon44%
×Draw29%
Las Palmas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijon
1.27
Las Palmas
0.94

Sporting Gijon creates 35% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 128 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijon
1.31
Las Palmas
0.94

allows per match

Sporting Gijon
0.93
Las Palmas
1.22

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par
Las Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Las Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw
73%
Sporting Gijon or Las Palmas
71%
Draw or Las Palmas
56%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
20%
Las Palmas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
72%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
36%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
14%
Las Palmas 1+ goals
61%
Las Palmas 2+ goals
24%
Las Palmas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
62%
Las Palmas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.93 · 169 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.31 + Las Palmas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Las Palmas attack 0.94 + Sporting Gijon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more
44%
level
29%
Las Palmas scores more
27%

Sporting Gijon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
Eric CurbeloLas PalmasLas Palmas · D
7.6

Match Events

26'
C. IzquierdozOwn goal
28'
Iván Cuéllar
45+3'
Guille Rosas
45+3'
Juan Otero
57'
Cristian Rivera
59'
Pablo Insua
61'
Víctor Campuzano← Cristo González
61'
Jony← Aitor García
67'
José Gragera← Pedro Díaz
67'
Óscar Clemente← Pejiño
67'
Marvin Park← Álvaro Jiménez
77'
U. Milovanović← Víctor Campuzano
77'
J. Carrillo← J. Otero
79'
Marc Cardona← F. Andone
79'
Vitolo← Alberto Moleiro

Possession

42%Sporting

Shots

8Sporting

Pass accuracy

47%Sporting

Statistics

SportingLas
Overview
42%Possession58%
8Total Shots6
4Corners3
18Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots6
1On Target1
4Off Target5
3Blocked0
6Inside Box3
2Outside Box3
Passing
42%Possession58%
364Total Passes526
268Accurate Passes434
74%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls11
5Yellow Cards0
5Offsides1

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 0–1 Las Palmas

Las Palmas beat Sporting Gijon 1-0 in Segunda División on December 3, 2022.

Goals: C. Izquierdoz (26' o.g.).

Las Palmas controlled possession (58%) and registered 6 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Molinón in Gijón.