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Sporting Gijon vs Eibar — Segunda División 2018

Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eibar
Eibar
2/8/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Sporting Gijon43%
×Draw29%
Eibar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijon
1.25
Eibar
0.96

Sporting Gijon creates 30% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 108 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijon
1.31
Eibar
0.99

allows per match

Sporting Gijon
0.93
Eibar
1.18

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par
Eibar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Eibar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw
72%
Sporting Gijon or Eibar
71%
Draw or Eibar
57%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
19%
Eibar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
71%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
36%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
13%
Eibar 1+ goals
62%
Eibar 2+ goals
25%
Eibar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
60%
Eibar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.93 · 169 matches

Eibar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.31 + Eibar defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Eibar attack 0.99 + Sporting Gijon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more
43%
level
29%
Eibar scores more
28%

Sporting Gijon at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Gijon vs Eibar

Sporting Gijon and Eibar drew 0-0 in Segunda División on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Molinón in Gijón.