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Eibar vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Eibar
Eibar
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
10/5/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Eibar48%
×Draw28%
Sporting Gijon24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar
1.35
Sporting Gijon
0.86

Eibar creates 57% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 169 away

creates per match

Eibar
1.56
Sporting Gijon
0.90

allows per match

Eibar
0.82
Sporting Gijon
1.14

finishing

Eibar+0.00on par
Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Sporting Gijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Eibar or draw
76%
Eibar or Sporting Gijon
72%
Draw or Sporting Gijon
52%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+
23%
Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals
74%
Eibar 2+ goals
39%
Eibar 3+ goals
15%
Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
58%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
21%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)
67%
Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 1.56 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Eibar defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eibar scores more
48%
level
28%
Sporting Gijon scores more
24%

Eibar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Eibar 1–3 Sporting Gijon

Sporting Gijon beat Eibar 3-1 in Segunda División on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa in Eibar.