Sporting Gijon 2–1 Deportivo La Coruna

Sporting Gijon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo La Coruna

Nacho Méndez 45'

Nico Serrano 17'

Barbero 61'

5/10/2025

Segunda División · Round 39Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sporting Gijon41%

×Draw28%

Deportivo La Coruna31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Coruna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.06

Sporting Gijon

1.27

Deportivo La Coruna

1.06

Sporting Gijon creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.44

creates per match

1.05

1.06

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Deportivo La Coruna

1.05

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.06

Deportivo La Coruna

1.10

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.06on par

Deportivo La Coruna-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

69%

Sporting Gijon or Deportivo La Coruna

72%

Draw or Deportivo La Coruna

59%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

72%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

36%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

57%

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.06 · 8 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.10 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.44 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.05 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

41%

level

28%

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

31%

Sporting Gijon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Guille Rosas

Sporting Gijon · D

7.7

Match Events

17'

Nico Serrano↳ Gaspar Campos

45+1'

Lander Olaetxea

45+1'

Yeremay Hernández

45'

Nacho Méndez↳ César Gelabert

46'

Cristian Herrera← Yeremay Hernández

46'

Barbero← D. Genreau

61'

Barbero↳ Diego Gómez

62'

Hugo Rama← Diego Gómez

69'

Pablo García← Gaspar Campos

69'

Diego Sánchez← Cote

77'

César Gelabert

77'

Sergio Escudero← Rafael Obrador

78'

Dani Queipo← Nico Serrano

78'

Nacho Martín← César Gelabert

83'

M. Bouldini← Z. Eddahchouri

88'

Kevin Vázquez← Guille Rosas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingDeportivo

Overview

32%Possession68%

16Total Shots9

5Corners4

11Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target1

6Off Target7

6Blocked1

13Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

32%Possession68%

302Total Passes638

226Accurate Passes550

75%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 2–1 Deportivo La Coruna

Sporting Gijon beat Deportivo La Coruna 2-1 in Segunda División on May 10, 2025.

Goals: Nico Serrano (17'), Nacho Méndez (45'), Barbero (61').

Deportivo La Coruna controlled possession (68%) and registered 9 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Molinón in Gijón.

Sporting Gijon vs Deportivo La Coruna — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 2–1 Deportivo La Coruna