Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Sporting Gijon

Deportivo La Coruna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gijon

David Mella 84'

Nacho Méndez 77'

11/24/2024

Segunda División · Round 16Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna47%

×Draw25%

Sporting Gijon28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La CorunaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.16

Deportivo La Coruna

1.58

Sporting Gijon

1.16

Deportivo La Coruna creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.64

creates per match

1.14

1.18

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.64

Sporting Gijon

1.14

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.18

Sporting Gijon

1.52

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna-0.04on par

Sporting Gijon-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw

72%

Deportivo La Coruna or Sporting Gijon

75%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

53%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

24%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

47%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

21%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

69%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

32%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

63%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.18 · 5 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.52 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.64 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sporting Gijon attack 1.14 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

47%

level

25%

Sporting Gijon scores more

28%

Deportivo La Coruna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Nacho Méndez

Sporting Gijon · M

7.7

Match Events

29'

Guille Rosas

71'

César Gelabert← Dani Queipo

73'

Álex Petxa← Ximo Navarro

73'

Cristian Herrera← Barbero

77'

Víctor Campuzano← J. Otero

77'

Nacho Méndez↳ Jonathan Dubasin

81'

J. Gauto← O. Mfulu

84'

David Mella↳ Lucas Pérez

90'

Lucas Pérez

90+1'

Álex Alfaro← David Mella

90+1'

Sergio Escudero← Rafael Obrador

90+3'

Jesús Bernal← Nacho Martín

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoSporting

Overview

50%Possession50%

4Total Shots12

1Corners8

6Fouls9

Shots

4Total Shots12

3On Target5

0Off Target7

1Blocked0

3Inside Box8

1Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

427Total Passes417

339Accurate Passes335

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3