Sporting Gijon 2–1 Castellón: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Castellón

Diego Sánchez 87'

Nacho Méndez 62'

K. Mamah 21'

10/14/2024

Segunda División · Round 9Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sporting Gijon34%

×Draw24%

Castellón42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.62

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Castellón

1.62

Castellón creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.44

creates per match

2.18

1.06

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Castellón

2.18

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.06

Castellón

1.44

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.06on par

Castellón-0.61scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

58%

Sporting Gijon or Castellón

76%

Draw or Castellón

66%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

16%

Castellón wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

76%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

42%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

18%

Castellón 1+ goals

80%

Castellón 2+ goals

48%

Castellón 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

45%

Castellón (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.06 · 8 matches

Castellón away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.44 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.44 + Castellón defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Castellón attack 2.18 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

34%

level

24%

Castellón scores more

42%

Castellón at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Nacho Méndez

Sporting Gijon · M

8.0

Match Events

-5'

2'

19'

21'

55'

58'

M. Seuntjens← Douglas Aurélio

58'

Salva Ruiz← Óscar Gil

60'

Dani Queipo← Gaspar Campos

60'

Diego Sánchez← N. Maraš

62'

Nacho Méndez↳ Jonathan Dubasin

70'

Nacho Martín← César Gelabert

70'

J. Caicedo← J. Otero

73'

Josep Calavera← Raúl Sánchez

73'

Israel Suero← Sergio Moyita

75'

Cote← Pablo García

87'

Diego Sánchez↳ Jonathan Dubasin

89'

Jonathan Dubasin

90'

D. Flakus Bosilj← J. Willems

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingCastellón

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots10

7Corners4

11Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots10

8On Target1

6Off Target6

3Blocked3

12Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

436Total Passes367

332Accurate Passes268

76%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 2–1 Castellón

Sporting Gijon beat Castellón 2-1 in Segunda División on October 14, 2024.

Goals: K. Mamah (21'), Nacho Méndez (62'), Diego Sánchez (87').

Sporting Gijon controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Molinón in Gijón.

Sporting Gijon vs Castellón — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 2–1 Castellón