Castellón 4–3 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Sporting Gijon

Kevin Vázquez 71' (OG)

Alberto Jiménez 67'

Raúl Sánchez 45+3', 17'

J. Otero 90+1', 53' (pen), 31'

5/5/2025

Segunda División · Round 38Estadio SkyFi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Castellón46%

×Draw24%

Sporting Gijon29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.25

Castellón

1.64

Sporting Gijon

1.25

Castellón creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.76

creates per match

1.14

1.36

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Castellón

1.76

Sporting Gijon

1.14

allows per match

Castellón

1.36

Sporting Gijon

1.52

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Castellón+0.49scores more

Sporting Gijon-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

71%

Castellón or Sporting Gijon

76%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

54%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

24%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

81%

Castellón 2+ goals

49%

Castellón 3+ goals

23%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

71%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

36%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

61%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.36 · 8 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.52 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.76 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sporting Gijon attack 1.14 + Castellón defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Castellón scores more

46%

level

24%

Sporting Gijon scores more

29%

Castellón at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Raúl Sánchez

Castellón · M

8.9

Match Events

17'

Raúl Sánchez↳ A. Mabil

19'

31'

45+6'

45+5'

45+3'

Raúl Sánchez↳ A. Mabil

52'

Gonzalo Crettaz

53'

J. OteroPenalty

57'

Israel Suero← J. Escobar

67'

Alberto Jiménez↳ Israel Suero

68'

Alberto JiménezGoal confirmed

69'

Guille Rosas← Nico Serrano

71'

Kevin VázquezOwn goal

75'

G. Zarfino← Cala

75'

Gaspar Campos← Lander Olaetxea

75'

Nacho Martín← Róber Pier

82'

Víctor Campuzano← Kevin Vázquez

85'

M. Traoré← Raúl Sánchez

85'

M. Jojić← Sergio Moyita

85'

De Miguel← A. Mabil

87'

Daijiro Chirino

90+1'

J. Otero↳ Pablo García

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CastellónSporting

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots18

3Corners4

7Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots18

7On Target7

4Off Target9

7Blocked2

14Inside Box13

4Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

398Total Passes370

310Accurate Passes270

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Segunda División: Castellón 4–3 Sporting Gijon

Castellón beat Sporting Gijon 4-3 in Segunda División on May 5, 2025.

Goals: Raúl Sánchez (17', 45+3'), J. Otero (31', 53' pen, 90+1'), Alberto Jiménez (67'), Kevin Vázquez (71' o.g.).

Castellón controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio SkyFi Castalia in Castellón de la Plana.

Castellón vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Castellón 4–3 Sporting Gijon