Sporting Gijon 1–2 AD Ceuta FC: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

AD Ceuta FC

G. Campos 30'

K. de la Fuente 28'

A. Cuenca 25' (OG)

5/3/2026

Segunda División · Round 38El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sporting Gijon57%

×Draw23%

AD Ceuta FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchAD Ceuta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.98

Sporting Gijon

1.84

AD Ceuta FC

0.98

Sporting Gijon creates 88% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.42

creates per match

0.95

1.01

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.42

AD Ceuta FC

0.95

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.01

AD Ceuta FC

2.26

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.15scores more

AD Ceuta FC-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

AD Ceuta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

80%

Sporting Gijon or AD Ceuta FC

77%

Draw or AD Ceuta FC

43%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

33%

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

84%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

55%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

28%

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

62%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

26%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

74%

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 7 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.26 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.42 + AD Ceuta FC defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.84

AD Ceuta FC attack 0.95 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

57%

level

23%

AD Ceuta FC scores more

20%

Sporting Gijon at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Zalazar

AD Ceuta FC · M

7.5

Match Events

25'

A. CuencaOwn goal

28'

K. de la Fuente↳ K. Zalazar

30'

32'

35'

43'

45+3'

46'

P. Garcia← D. Sanchez

46'

E. Curbelo← P. Vazquez

46'

S. Sanchez← A. Bassinga

62'

D. Queipo← C. Gelabert Pina

63'

M. Domenech← K. de la Fuente

68'

Matos Jose←

69'

Justin Smith

72'

Dani Queipo

72'

A. Coundoul← M. Rodriguez

75'

Marcos Fernández

79'

M. Conde←

90'

J. Campana← K. Zalazar

90'

G. Almenara← C. Redruello Nimo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingAD

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots17

0.87Expected Goals (xG)1.22

6Corners2

16Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots17

3On Target8

3Off Target5

3Blocked4

5Inside Box9

4Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

441Total Passes539

349Accurate Passes455

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1