AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

AD Ceuta FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Gijon

C. Gelabert Pina 4'

8/23/2025

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

AD Ceuta FC42%

×Draw25%

Sporting Gijon33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD Ceuta FCExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.28

AD Ceuta FC

1.47

Sporting Gijon

1.28

AD Ceuta FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.42

creates per match

1.14

1.43

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.42

Sporting Gijon

1.14

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.43

Sporting Gijon

1.52

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.41scores more

Sporting Gijon-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw

67%

AD Ceuta FC or Sporting Gijon

75%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

58%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

20%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

77%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

43%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

18%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

72%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

37%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

56%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.43 · 6 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.52 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.42 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sporting Gijon attack 1.14 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more

42%

level

25%

Sporting Gijon scores more

33%

AD Ceuta FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Yanez

Sporting Gijon · G

8.9

Match Events

4'

C. Gelabert Pina↳ J. Otero

37'

Juanto Ortuño

45'

Ignacio Martín

62'

E. Aghama← Y. Bodiger

65'

E. Curbelo← G. Campos

74'

P. Mbemba← C. Gelabert Pina

74'

J. Smith← Nacho Martin

78'

C. Rodriguez← K. Zalazar

84'

M. Vallejo← Youness

84'

A. Bassinga← A. Ahmed

88'

A. Coundoul← J. Otero

88'

E. O. Prendes← A. Corredera

89'

Amadou Coundoul

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ADSporting

Overview

63%Possession37%

12Total Shots7

3Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots7

7On Target4

2Off Target1

3Blocked2

10Inside Box6

2Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

504Total Passes302

405Accurate Passes203

80%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4