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Sporting Gijón II vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Martín
San Martín
5/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Sporting Gijón II64%
×Draw21%
San Martín15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijón II
1.98
San Martín
0.83

Sporting Gijón II creates 139% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 78 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II
2.42
San Martín
1.12

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II
0.54
San Martín
1.55

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par
San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

San Martín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw
85%
Sporting Gijón II or San Martín
79%
Draw or San Martín
36%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
39%
San Martín wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
86%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
59%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
31%
San Martín 1+ goals
56%
San Martín 2+ goals
20%
San Martín 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
81%
San Martín (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 2.42 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.98

San Martín attack 1.12 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more
64%
level
21%
San Martín scores more
15%

Sporting Gijón II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Sporting Gijón II 2–0 San Martín

Sporting Gijón II beat San Martín 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 3, 2026.