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San Martín vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Martín
San Martín
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
1/4/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio El Florán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

San Martín29%
×Draw29%
Sporting Gijón II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martín
0.93
Sporting Gijón II
1.19

Sporting Gijón II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 86 away

creates per match

San Martín
1.07
Sporting Gijón II
1.41

allows per match

San Martín
0.96
Sporting Gijón II
0.78

finishing

San Martín+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Martín or draw
58%
San Martín or Sporting Gijón II
71%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
71%

Winning margin

San Martín wins by 2+
10%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

San Martín 1+ goals
61%
San Martín 2+ goals
24%
San Martín 3+ goals
7%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
70%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
33%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

San Martín (draw refunded)
41%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martín at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martín attack 1.07 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + San Martín defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

San Martín scores more
29%
level
29%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
42%

Sporting Gijón II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: San Martín 0–2 Sporting Gijón II

Sporting Gijón II beat San Martín 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 4, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Florán in San Martín del Rey Aurelio.