Sporting Gijón II 4–2 Real Madrid II

Sporting Gijón II

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Real Madrid II

Berto González 62', 35', 14'

Iván Elena 18'

Miguel Baeza 90+2'

César Gelabert 52'

11/3/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sporting Gijón II45%

×Draw25%

Real Madrid II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Gijón IIExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.29

Sporting Gijón II

1.60

Real Madrid II

1.29

Sporting Gijón II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 51 away

1.63

creates per match

1.47

1.11

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.63

Real Madrid II

1.47

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.11

Real Madrid II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Real Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw

69%

Sporting Gijón II or Real Madrid II

75%

Draw or Real Madrid II

55%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

23%

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

80%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

47%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

22%

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

72%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

37%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

59%

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.63 + Real Madrid II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Real Madrid II attack 1.47 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more

45%

level

25%

Real Madrid II scores more

31%

Sporting Gijón II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Berto González

18'

Iván Elena

35'

Berto González

50'

César Gelabert← Pedro Ruiz

50'

Rodrigo← Jordi

52'

César Gelabert

54'

Pelayo Morilla← Iván Elena

61'

Isma Aizpiri← Garci

62'

Berto González

65'

Miguel Baeza← Marvin

83'

Pablo García← Berto González

90+2'

Miguel Baeza

Sporting

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

González

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Samuel Baños

54'▲Pelayo Morilla←▼Iván Elena

61'▲Isma Aizpiri←▼Garci

83'▲Pablo García←▼Berto González

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

MorillaAizpiriGarcíaChikiCamposJiménezBellini

Manager: Raúl

50'▲César Gelabert←▼Pedro Ruiz

50'▲Rodrigo←▼Jordi

65'▲Miguel Baeza←▼Marvin

Real Madrid II substitutes

GelabertRodrigoBaezaFuenteRodríguezCalderónFuidias

Match Recap: Sporting Gijón II vs Real Madrid II

Sporting Gijón II beat Real Madrid II 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 3, 2019.

Goals: Berto González (14', 35', 62'), Iván Elena (18'), César Gelabert (52'), Miguel Baeza (90+2').

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Leorio-Gijón.

Sporting Gijón II vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sporting Gijón II vs Real Madrid II