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Real Madrid II vs Sporting Gijón II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
CANC
00:00
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
3/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Real Madrid II54%
×Draw26%
Sporting Gijón II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.48
Sporting Gijón II
0.76

Real Madrid II creates 95% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 27 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.62
Sporting Gijón II
0.67

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.85
Sporting Gijón II
1.33

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
81%
Real Madrid II or Sporting Gijón II
74%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
46%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
28%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
77%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
43%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
19%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
53%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
18%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
74%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sporting Gijón II attack 0.67 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
54%
level
26%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
19%

Real Madrid II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Madrid II host Sporting Gijón II

March 22, 2020: Real Madrid II take on Sporting Gijón II in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Madrid II host Sporting Gijón II at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.